The dealer can never be certain of what may occur. Unfortunately forecasting is not a science but an art and any­thing can happen.

By January 1994 hardly anybody thought that the dollar could fail to cross 1.80 to the Deutsch Mark. The greenback did and made forecasters shy for 1995. In fact most studies see the dollar rising but, burned by experience in 1994, predict only modest rates. Right now (02/95), as levels of about 1.50 can be seen, predictions range from 1.65 to 1.75 for the end of 1995.

Long Term Technical Analysis

Dollar/DM Forex Rate Moves in 1995.

In December. 1994 the greenback started an upward cor­rection which was followed by a retracement in March. Mid of May 1995 the dollar remained in the 1.36 / 1.39 consolidation range. In August the US dollar drifted around between 1.35 and 1.42 of the German Mark. By the end of the year dollar/DM broke above 1.44. The continual downward trend since the start of 1994 seemed to be finally over. All the moves of the USD/ GEM are plotted on the Chart (Jan. 1996) and analysed in the articles below.

 

Dollar consolidates (Dec. 94)

 Vocabulary
hike — повышение
At the FOMC meeting of the FED on the 14th of November. the long expected interest rate hike became reality. The FED increased both the discount and the fund rates by 0.75 each to 4.75% and 5.5% respectively. Even before the summit, the

 FED(FRS) — Федеральная резервная
greenback started an upward correction, which was continued

 Federal Reserve система США (ФРС)
by the interest rate hikes, which were slightly above expectations. The international interest rate scenario has changed dra­

 System
matically over the last months. Contrary to the situation at the beginning of the year, where the dollar rates were around 2% be­low the DM rates, now the dollar rates for all maturities show a premium above the DM yields of 0.5% to 1%, this factor has to influence forex trade as well.

As the bearish sentiment will not be forgotten for a while, we expect a Range trading between 1.53DMand 1.75DM till the end of the year. but at least the lows should be behind us.

Improving charts

After an extend test of the lows at 1.50 DM, the market returned into the consolidation pattern between 1.53 and 1.58, which developed in the summer.

 FOMC — Комитет по операциям на
Federal открытом рынке (ФРС) США
Open Market
Commettee
ju: maturity — ценные бумаги со сроком погашения
range trading — торговля в канале (коридоре)


 

 

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